This is a tricky question to answer. How do you even define a golden age anyway? To each their own, I think, as what matters to me may not matter at all to others. Anyway, just when I was pondering on the latest trends in the bicycling industry, Russ from Path Less Pedaled published this video:
First, I should explain what this golden age means to me. I'm a simple man and I like simple things, bicycles included. My type of bike is all-mechanical (although hydraulic brakes are ok) that looks somewhat classic, perhaps even retro. That doesn't mean I'm a luddite though. I appreciate certain innovations if they make my life easier. This may include thru axles with disc brakes, tubeless tires, and dynamo lighting. But it also means that I have very little need for aero carbon frame, ultralight carbon wheels, internal cable routing, and any electronics.
Unfortunately, in the recent years the general trends in industry have been exactly opposite. It looks like bicycle companies are pushing aero-everything (frames, cockpits, even seat posts). With this, new bicycles come with internally-routed cables (which may looks pretty but is painful to service) and integrated cockpits (more aero, but not allowing for any adjustability).
Is this the future?
This also means a widespread use of carbon fiber. Don't get me wrong - it's a fantastic material (although not recyclable = not good for environment), unfortunately, it cannot be finished in polished silver. I just like those classic polished silver parts and they seem to be disappearing like "tears in rain". As more and more components are made with carbon fiber, we see more components in plain black: rims, handlebars, seat posts, cranks, brake levers, even derailleurs.
To sum it all up, for me the golden age of bicycles happened perhaps some time between 2005 and 2015. This was a time when we could pick from a wide selection of different types of bikes, using a large variety of components.
It was a time when the world was slowly switching from 10 speed to 11 speed road groupsets and Shimano introduced Dura Ace 7900, Ultegra 6800, or 105 5800. Many of those components were still available in classic polished silver finish. It's all gone now. Black is the new silver.
All these groupsets were completely mechanical and electronic systems were barely taking off. Now it feels that you can't ride your bike if you don't charge your derailleur, shifters, and your Garmin.
This was when we had a full variety of wheel sizes with 29" and 27.5" wheels being both popular and available, while even 26" wheel not being fully out of question. Now it looks like everyone forgot about 26", 27.5" has dramatically lost its momentum, and the industry is already trying to persuade us that we will need 32" wheels soon (for what?).
This was the time when aero wasn't in its full craze yet. Now new frames are often sculpted to be be more aero at a cost of utility, cockpits are integrated, seat posts are ovalized, and housing with cables must be completely hidden.
This was when though e-bikes were growing in popularity, the fully electric mopeds were not yet dominating. Now I feel that bike paths are full of high speed electric motorcycles that pretend to be bicycles, yet you never see anyone actually pedal them. In fact, while the youngest generation may be very interested in personal transportation, they don't want to pedal a bicycle. They just want to ride on it. E-mopeds will be the new bikes.
If I could predict the future, it doesn't look too exciting for me. Looks like the cycling world is evolving towards:
- more aero and this usually means more carbon fiber
- more complex systems with integrated electronic controls, wireless communication, etc.
- larger wheel sizes
- more factory-built wheels with carbon rims
- larger cassettes with more gears (14 speeds anyone?)
- more e-bikes and e-mopeds
So what's the risk? How will all this affect things I love? I predict that:
- Simple and efficient mechanical systems (like 2x9 setups) may become limited to only very low cost components. There will be no further development of high-performance mechanical gearing. Gone will be those 9-speed XT cassettes and Ultegra-level chains.
- "Peak mechanical" systems will become more obscure and niche. They will still exist but will be kept alive by alternative brands (Rivendell, Crust, Velo Orange, Merry Cycles, etc.). Russ compares it to the situation with CDs or vinyls - now used only by few.
- Polished silver components may exist with a very limited availability (unless they become fashionable for some reason) and will likely be provided mainly by alternative brands (Paul, White Industries, Nitto, Sugino, Garbaruk, etc.).
- Tires that are not applicable for racing (i.e. are not 700c) will become less available and 27.5" tires will be likely kept alive only by some small brands (Rene Herse, Ultradynamico, Simworks, etc.).
- Analog bicycles will be a minority. Even basic recreational bikes will have automatic, electronically-controlled gearing systems.
- Servicing bicycles at home will become difficult. Many components will be either of proprietary standards or have electronics built-in, making them impossible to service without proper tools.
On that last point, I strongly feel that those bike enthusiasts who fully embrace integrated cockpits and electronic shifting are the ones who are mainly interested in performance, but do not actually service their own bicycles. In such case paying someone to deal with the cable routing through a fully-integrated handlebars is not an issue.
On the other hand, those of us who ride to travel, often into the unknown, expect the bicycles to be reliable, simple, and easy to fix. Proprietary electronic components will not take us there.